Is the US economy rolling into a recession?
One question, eight coordinated views. Every chart below pulls live data from the Federal Reserve's FRED archive.
The yield curve
The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread. It has dipped below zero before every recession since 1990, shown as shaded bands.
The Sahm rule
Unemployment momentum as a recession trigger. A reading of 0.50 or more has marked the start of every US recession since 1970.
Where the stress is
Unemployment rate by state, latest month. Recessions start locally: watch for clusters, not the national average.
Jobs momentum by sector
Payroll change over the last 3 months, in thousands. Broad-based losses, not one weak sector, are the recession signature.
Inflation, category by category
CPI year-over-year change for the trailing 13 months. Darker means hotter; lime means outright deflation. Recessions rarely start while the Fed is still fighting broad heat.
Macro health, all axes
Each axis: today's reading as a percentile of its own history, where 100 is healthy. Weak everywhere at once is what a downturn looks like.
What households buy
Share of consumer spending. Durable goods collapse first in a downturn; services hold longest.
How far a dollar travels
Disposable income flows into consumption; only confident households let it reach big-ticket durables. That last stage thins out first before a recession.
Where the labor force goes
The entire civilian labor force flowing into work, sector by sector, or into unemployment. In a recession, the unemployed ribbon widens in real time.